Trading Beyond Tariffs
What looks like protectionism may be a calculated move to fight insolvency. Discover how to trade smart in a shifting global economy.
Global Trade
By Nicholas (Ambassador, Dr.) Jeffery
So… what is going on globally? Honestly, it’s a little scary right now — but without picking sides, the question is: how do we win in this game?,
As an investment banker and economist, here's my take:
Everyone's obsessing over whether the U.S. administration's (yes, Trump’s) new tariff talk is about protectionism, campaign strategy, or a geopolitical chess match. It's probably all of the above, but I believe that's not the core driver.
What looks like protectionism might be a recession strategy.
“We’ve got a $2 trillion deficit — if we don’t fix it, the country’s going bankrupt.”
— Elon Musk
Here’s the unspoken backstory:
The U.S. government faces a $9 trillion refinancing wave by the end of 2026. Most of that debt was issued when interest rates were near zero — a golden age we won’t see again soon. The 10-Year Treasury Yield sits just under 4.20%, down from its 4.60% peak in late 2024.
That number matters.
Every basis point shaved off = billions saved in interest.
So… is Trump’s game plan about avoiding U.S. insolvency?
Markets are down 20% this month. Is that a misstep… or a calculated move?
His Truth Social posts paint a picture: Trump and a crew of billionaire backers—Musk among them—might be playing chess while everyone else plays checkers. Some of those billionaires are now catching on, watching their own portfolios feel the squeeze.
Warren Buffett denies calling this “the best economic strategy in 50 years” — even though Berkshire Hathaway's value has climbed post-election.
Tariff supporters argue:
- Capital fleeing stocks rushes into treasuries.
- That gives the Fed a reason to slash rates — likely in May.
- Lower rates = cheaper debt, weaker dollar, cheaper exports, and lower mortgage rates.
They call this strategic economic warfare:
- Reshoring production
- Boosting local supply chains
- Lowering food prices (egg prices have dropped — though that could be lower bird flu cases too)
If preventing U.S. default is the actual play… expect these tariffs to stick — regardless of who tries to play economic chess with the U.S.
But the ripple effects are global:
- Asian economies are scrambling to reroute exports.
- China just granted 33 African nations zero tariffs on all exports.
- New trade routes are forming as sanctions circumvention spreads beyond Russia’s neighbors.
It’s a new world. A new order. And we must trade beyond tariffs.
Join us on the first Tuesday of every month for:
Trading Beyond Tariffs
Here’s how to navigate the shift: → Diversify your geographic market base
→ Move production closer to key markets
→ Optimize your cost structure
→ Transfer price where inelastic
By Nicolas Jeffery: CEO / C0-Founder Impresario Partners Inc.
Details To Follow
Global trade realigned: who wins when tariffs rise?
Tags: #Global Trade #Tariff Strategy #Economic Warfare #Supply Chain Shift #US Economy #Recession Planning #Business Strategy #Trade Diversification
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